The Negative Math of Wind and Solar Energy

Many people support wind and solar energy because they believe it replaces an equal amount of reliable energy in the form of coal, nuclear, natural gas, and in some areas of the country, hydroelectric. They generally understand solar energy is not available at night and on cloudy days, and that wind turbines do not provide energy when the wind doesn’t blow. Some even recognize if the wind blows too hard, the turbines must be shut down or the motors fail.

However, most people don’t understand the problem intermittent energy creates for PJM – the systems operator in this region, and bigger problems created due to the inability to store unreliable energy and dispatch it when needed.

System operators are responsible for scheduling arrivals and departures of electricity, which must be kept in precise balance or risk system failure. Based on long experience, the operators know approximately how much electricity must be scheduled to meet anticipated demand and plan accordingly. With reliable sources of energy this is an easy task because these sources of energy are usually only down for scheduled maintenance.

Because the “arrival” of solar and wind energy is difficult to predict, PJM is now using weather forecasts to help address scheduling problems. Even then, anyone who has relied on the forecast of sun, to plan a day at the beach, only to be greeted by clouds and rain, understands even short term forecasts are an inexact science.

So, how do you plan for the “departure” of unreliable, intermittent energy when its availability is generally difficult to predict? Answer – you can’t. This is because there is currently no cost-effective utility scale storage solution available to reliably dispatch wind or solar energy, using available battery technology – or any other technology.

This means each unit of alternative energy deployed must be backed up, or tended, by an equal unit of reliable energy. The consequence of this scientific reality is that wind and solar energy does not add to overall system capacity value, it actually reduces the capacity value of the grid and lessens the ability to meet demand. This has already led to system outages in Texas, which has the most installed wind capacity of any State in the Union. As alternative energy penetration increases, these problems will increase in frequency and severity.

Those on the inside are well aware of these problems. Rather than building reliable generation and adding to new capacity, the proponents of alternative energy argue society must demand less. If demand is not voluntarily reduced, the consequence will be prioritized electricity delivery, in order to protect the integrity of the grid. The bottom line is less electricity for consumers and businesses, more expensive electricity for everyone, and less prosperity for America.

John A. Nichols