OPEC’s China pivot
That prospect also ushers
in a major shift in OPEC exports toward China and the rest of emerging
Asia — especially as Iraq ascends once again as a game-changing exporter
— in a development that also has important implications for the U.S.,
Mr. Yergin said. While triggering a potentially fundamental reordering
of U.S. priorities in the Middle East, it also heightens the importance
of the U.S. managing its relationship with China so that the competition
between the two economic giants over securing energy supplies doesn’t
turn into outright conflict over such issues as Beijing’s energy claims
in the South China Sea, he said.
China already consumes more
energy from all sources — coal, oil, gas and renewable fuels — than the
United States, and it has an increasingly urgent need to secure its
supplies much as the U.S. did when it shifted to heavy dependence on
imports in the 1970s. Demand for oil continued to strengthen in China
even during the recession, while oil consumption in the U.S. and other
developed nations peaked years ago, with U.S. demand down 10 percent
since 2005.
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