Will DNREC Make a Ruling Based on Science?

Globally, sea levels are rising – as they have been since the demise of the last ice age more than 20,000 years ago. Our main questions are: How fast are they rising now and why? The ‘why’ is important as recent efforts to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions in Delaware are focused at halting sea level rise.

 

We must recognize that satellites cannot measure global changes in sea level very accurately. Adjustments made to data from the various satellites that have been in orbit since 1979 (i.e., Topex-Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2) are substantial as the biases can be as much as 100 mm (4 inches) despite the fact that the altimeters used on Jason-1 and Jason-2 are exact duplicates. Carl Wunsch, an anthropogenic global warming proponent, wrote: “It remains possible that the database is insufficient to compute mean sea level trends with the accuracy necessary to discuss the impact of global warming – as disappointing as this conclusion may be.”

 

In Delaware, DNREC’s Sea Level Rise Advisory Committee (SLRAC) began with the premise that “sea level rise…will continue to occur at an accelerated rate due to global climate change” but vowed to consider and adjust their scenarios “as the IPCC and other peer reviewed publications produce updated scenarios and modeling techniques.” Despite the fact that the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration provides data to indicate sea level rise in Delaware over the past century has been 11.1 ± 1.0 inches at Lewes and 12.0 ± 2.3 inches at Reedy Point, the SLRAC has prepared for sea level rise of 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 meters (19.7, 39.4, and 59.1 inches).

 

These figures are inconsistent with ten different peer reviewed articles published over the last two decades which clearly indicate sea level has not accelerated – meaning that rising levels of carbon dioxide have had no impact on the rate of sea level rise. But the SLRAC selected these levels despite the IPCC report in 2007 which indicated that sea level rise, even at the upper limit in its most extreme scenario would not exceed 0.59 meters (23.2 inches). Moreover, sea level rise along Delaware’s coast is mainly due to coastal subsidence, which cannot be addressed by draconian curbs on fossil fuel emissions.

 

As the State adopts California regulations and turns to ‘experts’ from outside the State without public hearings or votes from the State Assembly, we note that (1) there is no clear sign of acceleration in Delaware, (2) the current sea level rise in Delaware is largely due to coastal land subsidence, (3) there is no empirical basis to support a >0.5 meter (19.7 inch) rise in sea level by 2100, (4) models are inherently bad when it comes to forecasting sea level rise, and (5) addressing fossil fuel emissions cannot affect sea level rise in Delaware. We urge citizens to become informed and involved in this issue so lawmakers and policymakers are more aware of the facts and, like in North Carolina, such efforts can be thrown out for being unscientific.

 

David R. Legates is on the Advisory Council of the Caesar Rodney Institute

Download Document Here.